Latin America 2040 – Breaking Away from Complacency: An Agenda for Resurgence

This book presents a long term vision of Latin American society and economies, within which current policy debates and actions must be anchored. It presents a set of multigenerational issues that must be tackled urgently in order for countries in the region to sharply reduce inequities a well as raise their economic growth rates. The authors provide insight and advice regarding: budgetary policy and management; poverty reduction; macroeconomic policy coordination and integration; labor market policy; long-term macroeconomic reforms; innovation and technological development; infrastructure needs; regional cooperation and trade; and governance and political sustainability.


This book provides an analysis of the challenges facing economic growth, equality, public safety, education, competitiveness and technology and innovation. In doing so, the authors analyze the reasons for underperformance of the Latin America region during the past 30 years as compared to Asia and highlight issues related to the unsustainable economic, social and political state of Latin America.


Centennial’s econometric model most recently used for this study is its proprietary instrumental-variable-based structural equation model used to project infrastructure needs of 21 countries for 10 sectors through 2040 for alternate growth scenarios. The innovative methodology was published in a 2011 journal article, and its results constituted an entire chapter in the Latin America 2040 book. As one explanatory variable affected others, instrumental variables were required to ensure un-biasedness.


Latin America 2040 presents a strategy to realize the vision for rapid economic growth and faster reduction in disparities during the next three decades by sharply raising their growth rates while achieving much more inclusive societies.  It offers an agenda for what Latin America’s national leaders, policy makers and private businesses must do to regain the regions past momentum and achieve a much needed resurgence.


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